Circularidades económicas y observación de segundo orden: La realidad de las calificaciones crediticias
Resumen
Pueden los observadores observar la economía desde el exterior? Desarrollos recientes en la sociología económica tienden a desdibujar la clásica distinción y combinación entre economía y sociedad, y a avanzar hacia un modelo en el que el observador se encuentra necesariamente dentro de la sociedad que él describe. El comportamiento de los agentes financieros se puede analizar mediante la combinación de dos conceptos: el concurso de belleza y el riesgo moral una combinación que permite una traducción de su comportamiento en los términos y tradición de la teoría de la observación. El concurso de belleza de Keynes puede ser interpretado como un reconocimiento sistemático de la observación de segundo orden: los operadores financieros observan principalmente a otros observadores y lo que estos observan. Esta observación produce circularidades peculiares incluyendo el insoluble problema del riesgo moral, el cual reproduce el famoso modelo de Merton de las profecías autocumplidas y autofrustradas en el campo de las finanzas. Sin embargo, si las finanzas consisten en observaciones de segundo orden, entonces sus movimientos no pueden ser explicados más con referencia al mundo, sino con referencia a la observación y sus estructuras: la referencia a la realidad de las finanzas es proporcionada crecientemente por calificaciones crediticias que solo pueden ofrecer información respecto de lo que los demás observan. La expansión de las calificaciones crediticias en las últimas décadas y las dudas sobre su fiabilidad están relacionadas con el movimiento generalizado de la sociedad moderna hacia la observación de segundo orden, lo cual produce problemas y enigmas específicos, así como estructuras y restricciones.Palabras clave:
Teoría de la Observación, Incrustación, Performatividad, Calificaciones Crediticias, Finanzas, Concurso de Belleza, Riesgo MoralReferencias
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Akerlof, G. (1984). An Economic Theorist's Book of Tales. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Altheide, D. (1976). Creating Reality. How TV News Distorts Event. Beverly Hills/London: Sage.
Altheide D. & Snow R. (1979). Media Logic. Beverly Hills/London: Sage.
Beck, U. (1986). Die Risikogesellschaft: Auf dem Weg in eine andere Moderne. Frankfurt a.M.: Suhrkamp.
Beunza, D. & Stark, D. (2012). From Dissonance to Resonance: Cognitive Interdependence in Quantitative Finance. Economy and Society, 41(3), 383-417.
Black, F. & Scholes, M. (1981). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637-654.
Blank, G. (2007). Critics, Ratings and Society: The Sociology of Reviews. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.
Çalişkan, K. & Callon, M. (2009). Economization, part 1: Shifting Attention from the Economy towards Processes of Economization. Economy and Society, 38(3), 369-398.
Callon, M. (Ed.). (1998). The Laws of the Market. Oxford: Blackwell.
Callon, M., Millo, Y., & Muniesa F. (Eds.). (2007). Market Devices. Oxford: Blackwell.
Esposito, E. (2011). The Future of Futures. The Time of Money in Financing and Society. Cheltenham: Elgar.
Esposito, E. (2013). The Structures of Uncertainty. Performativity and Unpredictability in Economic Operations. Economy and Society, 42(1), 102-129.
Fama, E. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
Foerster, H. von (1972). Notes on an Epistemology for Living Things. BCL Report No.9.3, Biological Computer Laboratory, Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Illinois, Urbana. [Reimpreso en: Foerster, H. von (1981). Observing Systems (pp. 258-271). Seaside, CA: Intersystems Publications.]
Foerster, H. von (1981). Observing Systems. Seaside, CA: Intersystems Publications.
Gans, H. (1979). Deciding what's News. New York: Random House.
Granovetter, M. (1985). Economic Action and Social Structure: The Problem of Embeddedness. American Journal of Sociology, 91(3): 481-510.
Grossman, S. (1989). The Informational Role of Prices. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Grossman, S. & Stiglitz, J. (1980). On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets. American Economic Review, 70(3), 393-408.
Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.
Kessler, O. (2007). Unsicherheit, Ungewissheit und Risiko: Temporalität und die Rationalität der Finanzmärkte. En A. Langenoh & K. Schmidt-Beck (Eds.), Die Markt-Zeit der Finanzwirtschaft: soziale, kulturelle und ökonomische Dimensionen (pp. 293-321). Marburg: Metropolis.
Hilscher, J. and Wilson, M. (2012) Credit Ratings and Credit Risk. AFA 2013 San Diego Meetings Paper (January 31, 2012).
Langohr, H. & Langohr, P. (2008). The Rating Agencies and Their Credit Ratings: What They Are, How They Work and Why They are Relevant. Chichester: Wiley.
Levich, R. Majnoni, G., & Reinhart, C. (2002). Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System. New York: Kluwer.
Luhmann, N. (1988). Die Wirtschaft der Gesellschaft. Frankfurt a.M.: Suhrkamp.
Luhmann, N. (1991). Soziologie des Risikos. Berlin/New York: de Gruyter.
Luhmann, N. (1992). Beobachtungen der Moderne. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag.
Luhmann, N. (1995). Die Realität der Massenmedien. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag.
Luhmann, N. (1997). Die Gesellschaft der Gesellschaft. Frankfurt a.M.: Suhrkamp.
MacKenzie, D. (2006). An Engine, Not a Camera. How Financial Models Shape Markets. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
MacKenzie D. (2009). Material Markets. How Economic Agents Are Constructed. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
MacKenzie D., Muniesa, F., & Siu, L. (Eds.). (2007). Do Economists Make Markets? Princeton: Princeton University Press.
MacKenzie, D. & Millo, Y. (2003). Constructing a Market, Performing Theory: The Historical Sociology of a Financial Derivatives Exchange. American Journal of Sociology, 109(1), 107-145.
Partnoy, F. (2002). The Paradox of Credit Ratings. En R. Levich, G. Majnoni, & C. Reinhart, C. (Eds.), Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System (pp. 65-84). New York: Kluwer.
Power, M. (1997). The Audit Society. Rituals of Verification. New York: Oxford U.P.
Rebonato, R. (2001). Managing Model Risk. En C. Alexander (Ed.), Handbook of Risk Management. FT: Prentice Hall.
Reinhart, C. (2002). Sovereign Credit Ratings Before and After Financial Crises. En R. Levich, G. Majnoni, & C. Reinhart, C. (Eds.), Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System (pp. 251-268). New York: Kluwer.
Sinclair, T. (2010). Credit Rating Agencies and the Global Financial Crisis. Economic Sociology Newsletter, 12(1), 4-9.
Smith, R. & Walter, I. (2002). Rating Agencies: Is There an Agency Issue? En R. Levich, G. Majnoni, & C. Reinhart, C. (Eds.), Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System (pp. 289-318). New York: Kluwer.
Soros, G. (1987). The Alchemy of Finance. Reading the Mind of the Market. Chichester: Wiley.
Stigler, G. (1961). The Economics of Information. The Journal of Political Economy, 69(3), 213-225.
Stiglitz, J. (1985). Information and Economic Analysis: A Perspective. Economic Journal, 95, 21-41.
Stiglitz, J. (2003). Information and the Change in the Paradigm in Economics. En R. Arnott, B. Greenwald, R. Kanbur & B. Nalebuff (Eds.), Economics in an Imperfect World. Essays in Honor of Joseph E. Stiglitz (pp. 569-639). Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Sylla, R. (2002). An Historical Primer on the Business of Credit Ratings. En R. Levich, G. Majnoni, & C. Reinhart, C. (Eds.), Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System (pp. 19-40). New York: Kluwer.
Taleb, N. (2001). Fooled by Randomness. The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life. New York/London: Texere LLC.
Taleb, N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. London: Penguin.
Weber, M. (1922). Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Tübingen: Mohr.
White, L. (2002). The Credit Rating Industry: An Industrial Organization Analysis. En R. Levich, G. Majnoni, & C. Reinhart, C. (Eds.), Ratings, Rating Agencies and the Global Financial System (pp. 41-63). New York: Kluwer.
Zuckerman, G. (2009). The Greatest Trade Ever. The Behind-the-Scenes Story of How John Paulson Defied Wall Street and Made Financial History. New York: Broadway Books.
